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Post by Wimbo on Feb 21, 2021 11:44:16 GMT
The Peter Principle & LTFC
“The Peter Principle is a concept in management developed by Laurence J. Peter, which observes that people in a hierarchy tend to rise to their "level of incompetence": employees are promoted based on their success in previous jobs until they reach a level at which they are no longer competent”.
We at Luton are a sort of footballing version of the Peter Principle due to our rapid rise up the leagues leaving us at a level of incompetence both in terms of financial strength (no rich backer/owner) & the natural replacement of L2/L1 players.
The majority of our players have to be at their highest level of performance game after game to match something near the level of the average championship player. Our edge with there L1/L2 heroes is simply commitment and application and any match day that we fall from that 100% level, we suffer and the points are lost.
Should we find three clubs less able than ourselves this season, then in order to survive next season we will need to say a fond farewell to many heroes from the past few seasons? It's so much nicer to let these heroes depart than watch them struggle at this level. I won’t list the players as the issue is there for all to see.
In terms of football enjoyment, I am really not enjoying the championship. At this stage of our development, it’s simply a huge struggle to hold on to a place in the league whilst we view on iFollow in empty stadiums. I will be honest and say that I enjoyed our L1/L2/Conference days more especially some terrific away days.
So, personally, I don’t wish to single players out for excessive criticism; I am sure they are well aware of the struggle to bridge the gulf in quality. Also with contract negotiations going on with many OOC players, that may not aid our onfield performance & concentration.
So the struggle goes on and as one fellow Fool just texted me, Kioso is now the second-highest scorer at the club.
Let's hope we can collect those extra 13 or so points to reach safety but I would not bet on it.
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Post by shatter2 on Feb 21, 2021 14:15:52 GMT
Think you're spot on there Bill, Collins for instance has reached IMO his peak level and what he does is put his heart and soul into each match, not scoring goals but closing down and defending our penalty box.
On the enjoyment level there's been little of it these last two seasons and with us not being able to watch home and away games has not helped.
I was thinking of starting a thread on the lines of what's more gut wrenching, chasing promotion or fighting relegation?
In the Conference we had five years of chasing promotion and add to that the three years in Div 2 and Div 1 doing the same.
We've had one year fighting relegation and potentially another one coming up this season.
I would not be too fussed if we were relegated this year if it meant that our staying up would be another struggling season in the Championship.
Obviously relegation would mean a big lose in revenue but if you asked me what would I like better, an away day thrashing at Stoke or Brentford or a 2-0 win at Accy I think you might know what my answer would be!
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Post by Wimbo on Feb 21, 2021 14:38:30 GMT
Think you're spot on there Bill, Collins for instance has reached IMO his peak level and what he does is put his heart and soul into each match, not scoring goals but closing down and defending our penalty box. On the enjoyment level there's been little of it these last two seasons and with us not being able to watch home and away games has not helped. I was thinking of starting a thread on the lines of what's more gut wrenching, chasing promotion or fighting relegation? In the Conference we had five years of chasing promotion and add to that the three years in Div 2 and Div 1 doing the same. We've had one year fighting relegation and potentially another one coming up this season. I would not be too fussed if we were relegated this year if it meant that our staying up would be another struggling season in the Championship. Obviously relegation would mean a big lose in revenue but if you asked me what would I like better, an away day thrashing at Stoke or Brentford or a 2-0 win at Accy I think you might know what my answer would be! Steve, for next seasons game at Accy, if I am at the Peel Park ahead of you, there will be a big foaming pint of golden ale awaiting your arrival. Also if Pelly ain’t playing, Lake’s chips should be safe.  |
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Post by shatter2 on Feb 21, 2021 14:57:20 GMT
Think you're spot on there Bill, Collins for instance has reached IMO his peak level and what he does is put his heart and soul into each match, not scoring goals but closing down and defending our penalty box. On the enjoyment level there's been little of it these last two seasons and with us not being able to watch home and away games has not helped. I was thinking of starting a thread on the lines of what's more gut wrenching, chasing promotion or fighting relegation? In the Conference we had five years of chasing promotion and add to that the three years in Div 2 and Div 1 doing the same. We've had one year fighting relegation and potentially another one coming up this season. I would not be too fussed if we were relegated this year if it meant that our staying up would be another struggling season in the Championship. Obviously relegation would mean a big lose in revenue but if you asked me what would I like better, an away day thrashing at Stoke or Brentford or a 2-0 win at Accy I think you might know what my answer would be! Steve, for next seasons game at Accy, if I am at the Peel Park ahead of you, there will be a big foaming pint of golden ale awaiting your arrival. Also if Pelly ain’t playing, Lake’s chips should be safe. 😁 Can't wait! |
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Post by proudhattersince74 on Feb 21, 2021 15:25:36 GMT
I recall a conversation with a Derby County STH who hated every minute of their season in the Premier League when they amassed the lowest ever PL points total (lowest at that time but I have no idea if it has been bettered ... or should that be worsed?)
He said they were rolling up at Pride Park to watch their team get stuffed by all and sundry and he said the enjoyment only returned after they were relegated to tier 2 (not sure what it was called at that time). He said the change in atmosphere at the ground was tangible - people turned up because they knew their team had a chance of winning.
Do I want my club to be relegated? Of course I don't but neither do I want to flip-flop between elation and depression (okay it's really flip-flopping between relief and misery this season) week-to-week purely because A.N.Other FC has a larger financial backer than we have. But that is the level we are now at and to sustain it, I suspect that we can only consolidate if 2020 find serious investors (NOT buyers, investors) who can fund the acquisition of Championship quality players and managers (as NJ won't be here for ever). If such investors are not forthcoming then relegation will surely happen in the next season or two and the main worry is if that would affects Power Court.
Until or unless PC happens, our 'natural' position in the pyramid is League 1 IMHO. We simply cannot afford to be a Championship club if the long term stability of the club was at stake. Look at QPR, Derby, Reading, Forest, Sheffield Wednesday finances and it's frightening to see how much they have spunked on getting up to PL - now most of those are fretting about retaining Championship status as their overspending has caught up with them.
As Wimbo states, we have probably peaked and hit our ceiling of competency. In days of old when cup matches were as important as league matches to club owners and fans, the odd giant killing would happen but they were in a one off matches. We are trying to turn our Championship league matches into giant killing matches and it simply cannot be done more than a few times a season. We need a lot more than graft to give ourselves a chance in most of the 46 matches: KDH has shown us what we need to find (or produce through our own academy) and the frightening thing is that we need 4 or 5 like him for this level.
All of that noted, I have only seen one or two teams this season who are really in a different class to us. Unsurprisingly, the patently obvious differences happen in both penalty areas.
COYH
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Post by bms on Feb 21, 2021 16:16:26 GMT
Hard not to agree with all the above, especially the foaming pint 😀
The one variable yet to be tried out is a change of manager plus coaching staff. Although brushed aside in many encounters this season and last, we have seen this group of players competing and succeeding against some of the best sides and squads. Yet of late, the same selections of players and tactics resulting in the same outcome is a sign of a management team that has completely run out of ideas and solutions. I’m not even convinced such a move would be drastic - what’s the worst that could happen?
We all seem resigned to a return to League One so maybe it’s time for a fresh approach? I’m grateful for what Nathan and co have done but equally we owe him nothing. Will Mick and Paul Hart be at the club until they retire? Have they both retired already?
Difficult choices for 2020 - hope at least three teams remain poorer than us or do everything possible while there still is time to bring in a new leadership team to really fight for Championship status and rebuild a new squad in the summer, albeit with a miserly budget.
Who’d be a football club owner!
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Post by buzzhatter on Feb 21, 2021 17:16:58 GMT
I think the problem with NJ is that he has allowed himself to become too emotionally tied to “his” boys, and cannot find it within him to drop/rest them, even when they are poor week after week. Loyalty is one thing, but blind loyalty is plain stupid.
As fans we can easily fall in to the same trap, particularly when the player is seen almost as one of our own, has been with us through some really good times, and become a legend. We, and Nathan, need to be brutally honest and admit when certain players have reached their natural peak and cannot be improved any further. Look at what is required at this level, and judge what we have on that basis, and that basis alone. It’s not cloud cuckoo land to suggest we can build a squad capable of maintaining a place in the Championship, with offcasts from Premiership and Championship clubs, plus prospects from the lower leagues. But we cannot allow ourselves to be tied to the past. Nostalgia for the past is fine in small doses, taken to excess, it’s toxic. NJ has to decide his tactics and pick the best team to fit,, not just pick his favourites.
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Post by bms on Feb 21, 2021 19:00:51 GMT
Excellent post Buzz. The old mates gamble worked a treat after GJ’s dismissal but Sweet has known all along about this side of the Nathan set-up.
As the sun sets on Matt Smith’s Tuesday night hat trick, we may yet see white smoke from the Maple Road chimney.
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Post by proudhattersince74 on Feb 21, 2021 19:51:31 GMT
Different coaching staff now to when NJ left for Stoke. Different coaching staff to when NJ returned post lockdown.
Have the previous chains of command changed so significantly since we appointed (yet another) first team coach? Has the upgraded analyses of the players been at the expense of whatever drove the recruitment and team selections prior to GJ and Apple Macs arriving?
If fitness analysis is the basis for team selection then I guess we will be seeing pretty much the same starting team selections for most games as it's unlikely that data will vary massively from week-to-week once a group of professional sportsmen are all near to or are already at optimum fitness.
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Post by bms on Feb 21, 2021 20:36:04 GMT
Take your point Proud, but the constant there is NJ. And does a manager use finesse data exclusively to make selections - what about his his/her own observations, experience, knowledge and skills? It’s been abundantly evident for a while that Rae has been really struggling but NJ persists in both selecting him and playing him in exposed positions, with, oddly enough, the same outcome. That’s just one glaring example of just repeating the same thing but expecting a different result - definition of madness?
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Post by shatter2 on Feb 21, 2021 22:24:18 GMT
Who knows we may go on a six game winning streak and end up in the playoffs!
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Post by hatterinSW19 on Feb 21, 2021 22:36:44 GMT
If our current level of competence is lower mid-table Championship, then we're pretty much on course. I think the level of gloom is magnified because we've just lost 2 on the trot to teams that will be disappointed to finish outside the play-offs, but in the 2 games before that we took 4 points from teams in and around us, which are the ones we need to be affecting.
We've had a few absolute stinkers, but as the table stands currently, we've taken at least a point from every game we've played so far against a team from 14th place downwards*
*also a fair few points from teams higher up but can't go past 14th for the stat without hitting bogey team QPR with their 2 games in hand!
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Post by maggiechow on Feb 21, 2021 23:04:13 GMT
Lockyer and Pearson being injured on Saturday hasn't helped.
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Post by bms on Feb 22, 2021 8:53:57 GMT
Sw19 - but in the 2 games before that we took 4 points from teams in and around us, which are the ones we need to be affecting.
Maggie - Lockyer/Pearson
Very good points!
Shatter playoffs
Home brew? 🍺🍺🍺😂
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Post by biscot boy on Feb 22, 2021 11:35:30 GMT
The situation re finance and ability to sign established Championship quality players is certainly not going to change in the next few seasons.
Therefore we either continue the current prudent financial strategy or take a chance, spend more in the hope we cement our position in the Championship and receive the higher funding package figure as a result. My feeling is that the directors will continue with the current prudent strategy and hope to "cling on" in the Championship by signing and developing players with potential.
This season we have signed a number of players but of these only Lockyer, to date, has claimed a regular starting berth and the majority of regulars are the "old guard". Therefore the signings have not strengthened the side by much. I appreciate that Clark is knocking on the door and that Morrell and Bree have been injured. But injuries are commonplace in football and will always be an issue.
I have difficulty in understanding why Kioso and Osho have been sent out on loan and are playing regularly as RBs for their clubs, whilst due to Bree being injured the only other recognised RB is Cranie who is injury prone and past his best.
To survive in the Championship with the financially prudent plan we need a manager who is prepared to develop and SELECT young players. This is a difficult challenge and requires a person who is capable of making tough decisions and standing by them, I am not convinced that NJ is the right person to do this going forward. Having said that finding a replacement who can is going to be very difficult.
The alternative to this is to accept that we will be relegated, probably next season and ensure that we do not drop out of Div.1 and build for the future and be a YOYO club until finances dictate otherwise. The danger is that we could drop to Div.2 like MK and probably Burton this season.
These in my opinion are the stark realities confronting our Directors and it will be interesting as to which paths they decide upon. Whatever happens and if NJ stays, I certainly feel his backroom staff needs an overhaul and whilst he obviously will have a view he should not be the ultimate decision maker on the personnel.
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