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Post by offpat on Jul 12, 2020 13:32:02 GMT
Updated - again - and I thought it would be impossible - but here we are... table updated to match the final day now irrelevant IF we beat Blackburn, because then we'll stay up! obvs. The permutations begin if we draw - then Wigan and Sheffield Bloody Wednesday - need to be point dropped, but the EFL/FA appointed agency is being a slime ball.
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Post by offpat on Jul 12, 2020 13:34:06 GMT
Obviously this could quickly become a pointless exercise (no pun intended) - but if we do beat QPR and Hull, I think people will be scanning pages for this stuff quite frantically.
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Post by offpat on Jul 12, 2020 15:57:49 GMT
...and as a note on the point reduction scenarios: going into admin = automatic -12 points. Financial unfair rule breaking, -9 points is normal, -12 possible.
Admin has already happened for Wigan, who are doomed to relegation if they don't get at least 4 points from their 3 games... Charlton are still in serious trouble - even if not in the news = similar but possible administration and -12 - and these could happen AFTER the season is officially over. Birmingham in massive debt and probable breach of legal agreement made when they had previous 9 point deduction. Sheffield Wednesday awaiting much delayed FA review of their failure to comply with financial regs. All those factors make for very different calculations of relegation places should the FA be as strict as they could and should be.
However sorry I may feel for the state of football and the compounding factors of the Covid lockdown, when it comes to these clubs, - Luton had to deal with those same pressures without splurging money on players, long before Covid struck, because they decided to stick to the financial fair play rules and not incur stupid debts gambling on getting promoted... If the FA make allowances for Covid pressures on the above clubs, they will be being cheats themselves - and Luton, Barnsley and Wigan administrators will be first in the queue to sue their arses.
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Post by lutonloyal on Jul 12, 2020 19:42:12 GMT
...and as a note on the point reduction scenarios: going into admin = automatic -12 points. Financial unfair rule breaking, -9 points is normal, -12 possible. Admin has already happened for Wigan, who are doomed to relegation if they don't get at least 4 points from their 3 games... Charlton are still in serious trouble - even if not in the news = similar but possible administration and -12 - and these could happen AFTER the season is officially over. Birmingham in massive debt and probable breach of legal agreement made when they had previous 9 point deduction. Sheffield Wednesday awaiting much delayed FA review of their failure to comply with financial regs. All those factors make for very different calculations of relegation places should the FA be as strict as they could and should be. However sorry I may feel for the state of football and the compounding factors of the Covid lockdown, when it comes to these clubs, - Luton had to deal with those same pressures without splurging money on players, long before Covid struck, because they decided to stick to the financial fair play rules and not incur stupid debts gambling on getting promoted... If the FA make allowances for Covid pressures on the above clubs, they will be being cheats themselves - and Luton, Barnsley and Wigan administrators will be first in the queue to sue their arses. offpat, fully agree with nearly all of what you state. First of all let me state that I will not feel guilty/sorry one bit if other clubs misfortunes means we survive by the skin of our teeth due to any points deductions to any other clubs - NOBODY felt sorry for us when we had a total of FORTY points deducted in 2007 and 2008! The clubs you state above: Wigan, yes possibly/probably doomed because of the Admin 12 points deduction - unless in the unlikely event their appeal on COVID 19 grounds is successful? Charlton - I thought their latest takeover (3rd this season?) had successfully gone through and been approved by the FL and therefore no threat of Administration now - unless I have misread the situation? Birmingham - I'm sure they were told they had won their 2nd charge of breach of legal agreement etc - with no punishment this time. That is not to say they are mathematically safe yet! They have been AWFUL since the return and do not be surprised if they lose their last 3 games v Charlton, Derby and Preston to finish on their current 49 points ( although I want them to beat Charlton next) Sheff Wed - we are expecting a decision early this week and I am of the opinion (if my source is correct) is that the Owls will face a points deduction but we have no idea how many that might be? It genuinely could be 9, 12 or even as high as 21! if the authorities truly want to show they mean business now. Therefore it is essential IMHO to win V QPR and then at Hull and if so, I genuinely believe that 50 points might well be enough?
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Post by lutonloyal on Jul 12, 2020 20:02:14 GMT
Okay, I'm going to do the ideal scenario of what we want - one round of fixtures at a time though, as everything could change by Friday! Tuesday: Reading v Middlesbrough - HOME Win Wigan v Hull - DRAW, or 2nd best Wigan home win. Luton v QPR - OBVIOUS, HOME Win Sheff Wed v Huddersfield - HOME Win, or 2nd best Draw. Wednesday: Bristol City v Stoke - HOME Win Birmingham v Charlton - HOME Win Thursday: Leeds v Barnsley - HOME Win. Get Praying folks.
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Post by offpat on Jul 12, 2020 23:23:25 GMT
Wigan, yes possibly/probably doomed because of the Admin 12 points deduction - unless in the unlikely event their appeal on COVID 19 grounds is successful? (can't see that appeal happening - we have all had the same Covid pressures and Wigan's finance issues were there before)
Charlton - I thought their latest takeover (3rd this season?) had successfully gone through and been approved by the FL and therefore no threat of Administration now - unless I have misread the situation? - still the stadium ownership issue - but I think that depends on Elliot being a generous funder, which he has promised to be...Birmingham - I'm sure they were told they had won their 2nd charge of breach of legal agreement etc - with no punishment this time. That is not to say they are mathematically safe yet! They have been AWFUL since the return and do not be surprised if they lose their last 3 games v Charlton, Derby and Preston to finish on their current 49 points ( although I want them to beat Charlton next) Yeah - I Google searched Birmingham City news but that never came up, weird how searches do that some times - but yes - they have a manager who has already resigned but is playing out his notice for another 2 weeks - that is a recipe for losing. Sheff Wed - we are expecting a decision early this week and I am of the opinion (if my source is correct) is that the Owls will face a points deduction but we have no idea how many that might be? It genuinely could be 9, 12 or even as high as 21! if the authorities truly want to show they mean business now. Therefore it is essential IMHO to win V QPR and then at Hull and if so, I genuinely believe that 50 points might well be enough? I think you may well be right - The results I will be watching most closely will be Wednesday's, Barnsley's and Wigan's - because if they fail to win, well... and that means that if we lose to QPR we will carry on hoping and if we beat Hull there could still be a tense final evening against Blackburn. Whatever happens, an exciting week ahead.
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Post by offpat on Jul 15, 2020 23:32:48 GMT
2 draws are no good to us now - has to be 2 wins and other teams failing to.
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Post by hattersussex on Jul 16, 2020 8:06:42 GMT
Based purely on current form, and not my wishes...This is how I see the table finishing...
17...Birmingham...52 pts. 18...Middlesboro..52 pts. 19...Stoke City...51 pts. 20...Huddersfield.49 pts. 21...Luton Town...49 pts. 22...Charlton Ath.48 pts. 23...Hull City....45 pts. 24...Barnsley.....43 pts.
Wigan need to get at least 3 points from 2 remaining games...and Sheffield Wed...possibly need to win both remaining games !
We really have to win at Hull and get a better goal difference than theirs...It can still be done !...but 2 wins would definitely save us...I.M.H.O. !
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Post by lutonloyal on Jul 16, 2020 20:04:42 GMT
Okay, I'm going to do the ideal scenario of what we want - one round of fixtures at a time though, as everything could change by Friday! Tuesday: Reading v Middlesbrough - HOME Win .................................Away win Wigan v Hull - DRAW, or 2nd best Wigan home win...................I think that was a home win - just Luton v QPR - OBVIOUS, HOME Win .......................................Aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ! Sheff Wed v Huddersfield - HOME Win, or 2nd best Draw............2nd best, draw Wednesday: Bristol City v Stoke - HOME Win .............................................. Draw Birmingham v Charlton - HOME Win..........................................93rd min Birmingham equaliser for a draw - which keeps BOTH teams still within our range mathematically Thursday: Leeds v Barnsley - HOME Win..............................................Home win - JUST! Get Praying folks. Ok so after Round 1 - only ONE of those ideal results occurred and judging by what I've read and heard, Barnsley were unlucky not to get at least a point at Leeds tonight! I shall shortly post my Round 2 penultimate fixtures.
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Post by lutonloyal on Jul 16, 2020 20:18:30 GMT
Okay, I'm going to do the ideal scenario of what we want - one round of fixtures at a time though, as everything could change by Friday! Tuesday: Reading v Middlesbrough - HOME Win .................................Away win Wigan v Hull - DRAW, or 2nd best Wigan home win...................I think that was a home win - just Luton v QPR - OBVIOUS, HOME Win .......................................Aghhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ! Sheff Wed v Huddersfield - HOME Win, or 2nd best Draw............2nd best, draw Wednesday: Bristol City v Stoke - HOME Win .............................................. Draw Birmingham v Charlton - HOME Win..........................................93rd min Birmingham equaliser for a draw - which keeps BOTH teams still within our range mathematically Thursday: Leeds v Barnsley - HOME Win..............................................Home win - JUST! Get Praying folks. Ok so after Round 1 - only ONE of those ideal results occurred and judging by what I've read and heard, Barnsley were unlucky not to get at least a point at Leeds tonight! I shall shortly post my Round 2 penultimate fixtures. Friday: Huddersfield v WBA - Away win PLEASE..................................Well who saw that coming? Huddersfield beat the Baggies 2-1 and are now SAFE - yet they sacked their Manager today! Saturday: Charlton v Wigan* - Draw, 2nd best Charlton win (but only if Wigan*'s appeal fails) if successful, then 2nd best would be a Wigan* win................EXACTLY what we wanted 2-2 Stoke v Brentford - Away win only.....................................1-0 to the Potters - another shocker (though not to me personally - I had a feeling Stoke were going to win. They too are now SAFE. Hull v Luton - OBVIOUSLY AWAY Win - anything else and IMHO we are realistically down. ............................0-1 Lua Lua Preston v Birmingham - Home win Only.....................2-0 Preston but thanks to other results Birmingham are SAFE on 50 points. Fulham v Sheff Wed - Home Win (bearing in mind an Owls points deduction is looking more of possibility every day, it's just how many points will they be deducted?).....incredible 5-3 Home win. Middlesbrough v Cardiff - Away win only..................1-3 Cardiff but thanks to other results Boro are now SAFE on 50 points. Sunday: Barnsley v Nottm Forest - Away win, 2nd best Draw........................1-0 Barnsley, the Tykes live to fight again and take it to the last game. See you here on Sunday night folks to see where we stand.
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Post by offpat on Jul 17, 2020 14:22:45 GMT
Friday: Huddersfield v WBA - Away win PLEASE. Saturday: Charlton v Wigan - Draw, 2nd best Charlton win (but only if Wigan's appeal fails) if successful, then 2nd best would be a Wigan win. Stoke v Brentford - Away win only. Hull v Luton - OBVIOUSLY AWAY Win - anything else and IMHO we are realistically down. Preston v Birmingham - Home win Only. Fulham v Sheff Wed - Home Win (bearing in mind an Owls points deduction is looking more of possibility every day, it's just how many points will they be deducted?) Middlesbrough v Cardiff - Away win only. Sunday: Barnsley v Nottm Forest - Away win, 2nd best Draw. See you here on Sunday night folks to see where we stand. If Wigan do successfully appeal I think we should get back 15 of our minus 30 points from 2008, now - that would be just as logical! and we'd be laughing, just outside the play-off spots. but seriously - if they do succeed (which feels unlikely) then our best interest is they beat Charlton 8-0 2nd best would be a draw - If we win we have a serious chance of staying up - against a lot of saner, better judgements I have made before this season... and if the EFL/FA don't punish Wednesday and Wigan we will have something about unfair privileges to moan about for at least another two generations.
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Post by lutonloyal on Jul 17, 2020 18:10:26 GMT
Friday: Huddersfield v WBA - Away win PLEASE. Saturday: Charlton v Wigan - Draw, 2nd best Charlton win (but only if Wigan's appeal fails) if successful, then 2nd best would be a Wigan win. Stoke v Brentford - Away win only. Hull v Luton - OBVIOUSLY AWAY Win - anything else and IMHO we are realistically down. Preston v Birmingham - Home win Only. Fulham v Sheff Wed - Home Win (bearing in mind an Owls points deduction is looking more of possibility every day, it's just how many points will they be deducted?) Middlesbrough v Cardiff - Away win only. Sunday: Barnsley v Nottm Forest - Away win, 2nd best Draw. See you here on Sunday night folks to see where we stand. If Wigan do successfully appeal I think we should get back 15 of our minus 30 points from 2008, now - that would be just as logical! and we'd be laughing, just outside the play-off spots. but seriously - if they do succeed (which feels unlikely) then our best interest is they beat Charlton 8-0 2nd best would be a draw - If we win we have a serious chance of staying up - against a lot of saner, better judgements I have made before this season... and if the EFL/FA don't punish Wednesday and Wigan we will have something about unfair privileges to moan about for at least another two generations. I've been reliably informed that Wigan's appeal on entering Administration due to COVID19 grounds, has a 99.99% of being disagreed by the FL.............in other words Wigan WILL get 12 points deducted THIS season. But in all seriousness, I still think they are too good to go down and will survive.
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Post by Jeros on Jul 17, 2020 21:06:17 GMT
In the past if you go into administration then points deduction, why would Wigan be any different. Wont make any difference to us anyway.
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Post by offpat on Jul 17, 2020 22:31:20 GMT
no way should they be allowed to plead "Covid " - as if it didn't affect every club just some of us hadn't spent on the basis of silly hopes and promises.
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Post by offpat on Jul 17, 2020 23:02:12 GMT
and.... amazingly there are still the not unbettable odds on playing Watford next season
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