MDF Fulham v Luton Town 16/09/23

[greeno]

Reasons to be cheerful ctd.
League goals conceded this season sequence:
4, 3, 2, 1.

Obviously 0 next.

[8two]

Sept 18, 2023 9:23:03 GMT greeno said:

Reasons to be cheerful ctd.
League goals conceded this season sequence:
4, 3, 2, 1.

Obviously 0 next.

yer greeno, the Ted Rogers playbook.

[proudhattersince74]

Just because players cost (a lot of) money over this summer's transfer window doesn't mean they should be selected above those who 'only' plied their trade at Championship level. TBH, some of those that did cost a fair whack were also Championship players last season and, IMHO, no better than what is already available when needed.

We ARE definitely improving but, in both of the last two games, our improvements have coincided with the introductions of pace through Ogbene and Brown and, more importantly for our defence, the strength and positioning of Pelly. If we are truly able to push the opposition defences back by pace then they may then suffer the same issue as us where their forward line (whether it is one or two up top) is isolated from the rest of the team. Similarly, if we are able to actually be combative in midfield then we don't have to sit so far back and invite quality players to attack us.

I like Chong as an attacking threat but he is so lightweight in challenges and has such poor positional sense when out of possession that I cannot see his selection working away from home, especially if RE is going to set us up to defend-defend-defend-counter attack. The possession stats didn't surprise me vs Fulham as we simply allowed them to pick away at us until something caved in.

One aspect of our play that I haven't liked in any of the matches so far is how narrow the team is when out of possession. Our full backs play in line with the penalty box and leave the flanks free for the opposition wingers/wing backs to hug the touchline and receive passes far too easily. Our FBs have to then run 10-15 yards simply to engage the player who has already received and controlled the ball and looked up to work out the next move. Given that we had often had nine players in two compressed banks trying to defend the attacks by suffocating the central options, surely we don't need to be compressed across the width of the pitch as well. Crossing the ball into the danger area should be bloody difficult for the opposition but we almost offer it as a norm.

Just to compound that issue, playing Bell at LB was an odd tactic IMO. There were occasions in the first half where he was 5+ yards inside the penalty area, virtually holding hands with Andersen ... so he was having to run even further to face up to the Fulham right wing back and Harry Wilson.

I'm not sure RE has the collective ability in the squad to ever force the opposition's wing backs deep into their own halves for any prolonged periods but our invitation for them to attack us and cross at will does look somewhat self inflicted.

Pelly, Doughty and Ogbene look like they can cope with that highly defensive approach better than some that started vs Fulham. They would be three of the first names on my team sheet away from KR if that is to be our tactic to frustrate the opposition.

Oh and please can someone other than Kabore take our throw-ins? Apart from the fact that he has a range of about 10 yards, there were three or four that I thought were obvious foul throws. Given the performance of the referee at Fulham, I'm amazed that he didn't pull Kabore up on them. Compare that to Sheffield United's goal at Spurs where their throw-ins were 30+ yards into the penalty area and it is a massive factor when trying to defend against it. Fulham (or any opposition for that matter) can pack the area between the touchline and goal so where the hell are we going to go with it? Spurs, on the other hand, had to defend them like corners/set pieces so their defence was spread out much further and their midfield was brought back to help cover just outside the penalty area ... not that it did any good against Hamer for the goal.

We are getting better but I'd like to see if we can take the game to the opposition before falling behind and/or watching them make the first impact substitutions. We were the team that really needed some changes yet Fulham made the first ones and almost immediately scored! Ours were good when they happened but it was too late by then. Hopefully RE is also learning week by week and will be proactive rather than reactive.

COYH.

[Lake]

Sept 18, 2023 11:24:48 GMT proudhattersince74 said:

Just because players cost (a lot of) money over this summer's transfer window doesn't mean they should be selected above those who 'only' plied their trade at Championship level. TBH, some of those that did cost a fair whack were also Championship players last season and, IMHO, no better than what is already available when needed.

We ARE definitely improving but, in both of the last two games, our improvements have coincided with the introductions of pace through Ogbene and Brown and, more importantly for our defence, the strength and positioning of Pelly. If we are truly able to push the opposition defences back by pace then they may then suffer the same issue as us where their forward line (whether it is one or two up top) is isolated from the rest of the team. Similarly, if we are able to actually be combative in midfield then we don't have to sit so far back and invite quality players to attack us.

I like Chong as an attacking threat but he is so lightweight in challenges and has such poor positional sense when out of possession that I cannot see his selection working away from home, especially if RE is going to set us up to defend-defend-defend-counter attack. The possession stats didn't surprise me vs Fulham as we simply allowed them to pick away at us until something caved in.

One aspect of our play that I haven't liked in any of the matches so far is how narrow the team is when out of possession. Our full backs play in line with the penalty box and leave the flanks free for the opposition wingers/wing backs to hug the touchline and receive passes far too easily. Our FBs have to then run 10-15 yards simply to engage the player who has already received and controlled the ball and looked up to work out the next move. Given that we had often had nine players in two compressed banks trying to defend the attacks by suffocating the central options, surely we don't need to be compressed across the width of the pitch as well. Crossing the ball into the danger area should be bloody difficult for the opposition but we almost offer it as a norm.

Just to compound that issue, playing Bell at LB was an odd tactic IMO. There were occasions in the first half where he was 5+ yards inside the penalty area, virtually holding hands with Andersen ... so he was having to run even further to face up to the Fulham right wing back and Harry Wilson.

I'm not sure RE has the collective ability in the squad to ever force the opposition's wing backs deep into their own halves for any prolonged periods but our invitation for them to attack us and cross at will does look somewhat self inflicted.

Pelly, Doughty and Ogbene look like they can cope with that highly defensive approach better than some that started vs Fulham. They would be three of the first names on my team sheet away from KR if that is to be our tactic to frustrate the opposition.

Oh and please can someone other than Kabore take our throw-ins? Apart from the fact that he has a range of about 10 yards, there were three or four that I thought were obvious foul throws. Given the performance of the referee at Fulham, I'm amazed that he didn't pull Kabore up on them. Compare that to Sheffield United's goal at Spurs where their throw-ins were 30+ yards into the penalty area and it is a massive factor when trying to defend against it. Fulham (or any opposition for that matter) can pack the area between the touchline and goal so where the hell are we going to go with it? Spurs, on the other hand, had to defend them like corners/set pieces so their defence was spread out much further and their midfield was brought back to help cover just outside the penalty area ... not that it did any good against Hamer for the goal.

We are getting better but I'd like to see if we can take the game to the opposition before falling behind and/or watching them make the first impact substitutions. We were the team that really needed some changes yet Fulham made the first ones and almost immediately scored! Ours were good when they happened but it was too late by then. Hopefully RE is also learning week by week and will be proactive rather than reactive.

COYH.

Excellent post.

[bms]

Saw this on Outlaws, worth a read

Posted by Zaphod on 18/9/2023, 17:46:48
Copied from today's Times newsletter, but the graphics are missing. Some constructive criticism.

Interesting that he sees a lack of intensity as one of the problems - that has been our strength in the past.






James Gheerbrant
Sports Writer


A reader question, from Douglas Hamilton: "How can Luton Town set up and play in order to secure their place in the Premier League?"

Thanks for the question, Douglas. It’s been a difficult start to life in the top flight for the Hatters. Their next three fixtures – at home to Wolves, away to Everton and at home to Burnley – are winnable, but for now Rob Edwards’ side have no points to show for their first four games. Four of the five promoted teams to find themselves in this predicament have gone on to be relegated, three of them in last place:
 




 
Across their four matches so far, Luton’s opponents have had much the better of the balance of chances, with shots worth 8.3 expected goals (xG) conceded, whereas Luton have created only 4.5 xG. A differential of nearly -1 xG per match is clearly not sustainable if Luton are going to stay up.
 




 
So far, so ominous - but if you dig a little deeper, there are some more promising signs to cling on to. In Saturday’s match against Fulham, Luton actually had slightly the better of the chances, creating 1.1 xG off only 22 per cent possession. That’s the fifth most productive that a team has been with less than 23 per cent possession since the start of 2021-22:
 




 
If we look at Luton’s first three games, we can see that, despite having less than 40 per cent possession in each match, their number of touches in the final third and penalty area were respectable by comparison with what other teams have achieved against Brighton, Chelsea and West Ham in their past 20 Premier League games. So, Luton have shown an ability to turn a very limited share of the ball into territory and chances:
 








 
How could they get more bang for their buck going forward? Luton have a clearly defined tactical identity, based on a 3-5-2 formation, the hold-up play of their twin strikers, especially Carlton Morris, and getting the ball wide to the wing-backs. Edwards seems unlikely to deviate from that basic template, so rather than suggest fundamental changes, let’s focus on what Luton could do to improve within their way of playing.

In their first three games, one point of weakness that Luton suffered from was a lack of support runners in the half-spaces and a reluctance to play through those areas. Here’s a typical attack from the Brighton game: Ryan Giles has the ball on the left, Morris and Elijah Adebayo are in the box, but there’s no attacking presence in that left half-space: Pelly Ruddock Mpanzu is barely in the shot. The cross is Giles’s only option, and as such, predictable:
 




 
This is a better and more dynamic attack from the same game, but again Luton fail to play in the areas that would really challenge Brighton’s defensive structure. If Tahith Chong attacks the space in front of Lewis Dunk, Luton have a four-on-three and the pass infield to Adebayo takes Dunk out of the game:
 




 
Instead, Chong bends his run towards the touchline and Brighton are defending a much less threatening wide cross:
 




 

 

What do you want to read next time?
If you'd like to have one of your questions analysed in depth by the newsletter, please send an email to [e-mail]

 



 
Playing through the half-spaces would allow Luton to pose more dilemmas for defending teams. They could give their ‘eights’ more licence to attack those areas, or – as Chris Wilder’s Sheffield United, another promoted team with a not dissimilar system, did – have the lateral centre backs make support runs.

Or there may be a different solution, one which seemed to present itself against Fulham. Edwards played Jacob Brown alongside Morris instead of Adebayo, and his willingness to play in those inside channels had an immediate effect. Here, Luton are attacking from a similar wide position, but this time Brown drifts into the right half-space. Fulham’s defensive structure is disrupted and Brown gets into a much more dangerous crossing position: his delivery for Amari’i Bell should lead to a goal:
 

 
Luton have also got to make more of set pieces. In the Championship last season, they ranked third for xG from set plays, and only tenth for xG from open play. It’s perhaps unrealistic to expect them to go from being a mid-ranking Championship team to a top-17 Premier League team in terms of open-play creativity; they really need to make dead-ball situations count. A return of 0.85 xG from set plays from four games so far is slightly disappointing:
 




 
To some extent, Luton simply need better execution from set plays. This is a good corner design against Chelsea, and if Ross Barkley can flick the ball to the back post, where Tom Lockyer and Reece Burke are lurking, it would be a very hard situation for Chelsea to defend. But Barkley just doesn’t make good enough contact:
 




 
Out of possession, Luton look to press high then transition into a 3-5-2 or 5-3-2 defensive block. But at the moment, they haven’t quite got the balance right, and have a tendency to fall back into that block too early, with not enough pressure on the ball. Here’s a good example from the Brighton game: Mo Dahoud simply has far too much time and space in front of him to pick out the run of Kaoru Mitoma. This leads to Brighton’s first goal:
 




 
Here’s a situation against Chelsea: again, there’s no pressure being applied by the midfield three, their only objective is to stop Chelsea playing through them - but it’s too easy to work a four-on-three overload and thus isolate Raheem Sterling against Giles:
 




 
It’s early days, but so far Luton are one of the least intense teams in the Premier League out of possession: they’re allowing their opponents 23 and a half passes for every defensive action they make.
 




 
Nottingham Forest showed last season that it is possible to defend in this way and survive, although they conceded 68 goals along the way. A slightly more disruptive defensive approach may stand them in better stead.



















 









 

[bms]

And another interesting read posted by Herve Bacquet (lui-meme 😀)

From The Athletic today:

The last time Luton Town lost their four opening games of a season was in August 2002.

Peterborough United, Blackpool, Plymouth Argyle and Barnsley all ensured Luton had a rough start to their League One campaign.

Now, it is Brighton & Hove Albion, Chelsea, West Ham United and, as of Saturday afternoon, Fulham who inflicted that same pain. Only this time Luton are a Premier League team.

Ten years ago, they were a non-League side who started the Conference League with a 1-0 loss away to Southport. This is a the reasons why their four defeats will not derail the mood of a fanbase settled on the idea of being in the top flight for a good time, not a long time. Even if they, and the group of players they are cheering on, all want to make this dream live on into next season.

Should Luton lose to Wolverhampton Wanderers at Kenilworth Road next weekend, it would be the worst start to a Premier League season for a newly promoted team ever. Luton’s 1-0 loss at Craven Cottage put them level with Swindon Town, who lost their four opening games in 1993-94 and were later relegated.

And while some fans have made peace with what they are calling “a free-hit” season, manager Rob Edwards and his players are not viewing it that way.

Edwards himself was frustrated when he was briefed on BBC pundit Garth Crooks’ recent column in which he said he sees them relegated by Christmas.

“We’re not a team to be laughed at,” Edwards said on Thursday in response.

Marco Silva was not laughing either. The Fulham manager thought Luton made the game “tricky” and “difficult”. He singled out their formation change from 5-3-2 to 5-4-1 and playing Carlton Morris as the lone striker in particular as something which caught him off guard. Silva did reveal his respect for Edwards’ strategy, even if he also lamented his low-block approach that limited Fulham to two shots on target out of 13 in total.

Fulham’s 77.8 per cent possession is their highest-ever total in the Premier League since data collection began in 2003-04. For Luton, a 1-0 defeat, and the manner in which they frustrated Silva’s team, was a marker of progress — even for their limited time on the ball. The last time they played Fulham at Craven Cottage was in the Championship in May 2022. They lost 7-0.

This was better but, unfortunately for Luton, they have picked up an unwanted habit of conceding in the second half of every game so far. Carlos Vinicius’ goal in the 65th minute was the seventh they have now conceded after the break. Only Wolves, who have played a game more, boast a worse record, having shipped 10.

There were some positives to take for Luton, however.

Fulham’s goal never felt like a winning one until the 94th minute when Luton captain Tom Lockyer, who also played in the 7-0 humbling, glanced a header wide. The centre-back hobbled back to defence, and by the time he got there, referee Michael Salisbury had called time. Until then, the whiff of a point was a scent Luton did not give up on.

Albert Sambi Lokonga’s debut, after completing his season-long loan from Arsenal on deadline day, made a difference. The 23-year-old midfielder never looked flustered as he merged defence with attack. At times he was the furthest Luton player forward and took the press right to the feet of Fulham centre-back Tim Ream repeatedly. He knew when to drop deep and won the ball back eight times, which was the joint highest for the game.

A slick passer, he created one of Luton’s best chances yet in the Premier League. The timing and weight of his pass to Tahith Chong inside five minutes were both perfect. Then there was a moment when Lockyer was dwelling on the ball and Lokonga asked for him to speed it up. He did that a lot and to good effect.

His link-up play with Manchester City loanee Issa Kabore was natural and a standout. In the 26th minute, it was Lokonga who set 22-year-old Kabore away. The right-back found forward Jacob Brown with his cross and he hit the post with his header.

“It is a new level for the majority of us — we are all working hard and pushing each other,” Brown said. “We all feel comfortable and confident. You can’t switch off for one second or you get punished. And we are not getting as many chances as we did last season, so when we do get them we need to take them.”

That feeling of frustration for those missed chances, as well as a penalty appeal by Carlton Morris which was waved away and a lack of added time, lingered a the manager and his players afterwards.

There were further displays of regret too. “I hate the goal. It is so unlucky,” defender Mads Andersen said of Vinicius’ tap-in after goalkeeper Thomas Kaminski palmed it into his path. “Everyone was working so hard for so long and then we concede that goal. It was so frustrating.”

Andersen went on to say how impressed he had been by the team’s growth in performance and togetherness in the past few weeks. He said the team were not only defending well together but looking dangerous on the transition.

And even if this season is a free hit, Luton, who only lost three of their last 25 Championship games during 2022-23, will not want to end 2023-24 as the worst Premier League season on record.

With each passing week, they do look more confident in ensuring that does not happen, but points need to become a reality rather than an aspiration. Their next three Premier League fixtures are against Wolves, Everton and Burnley, and if they don’t make a dent on Derby’s 11-point record, the feel-good sentiment of a free-hit season will be harder to maintain.

[shatter2]

Thanks Proud for the in depth summary and also thanks BMS for the two pieces you posted.